外媒每日新闻 Economic D-Day & Bond Market Edition

Nearing the six-month mark of the Iran war, President Donald Trump announced an “unprecedented” level of economic warfare and isolation on Iran, calling it an “economic D-Day” aimed at forcing Tehran to end its nuclear program and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and natural gas tankers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the administration would impose “the toughest sanctions in history” and warned allies: “You are either with us, or against us.” The campaign, dubbed “Operation Economic Fury,” would target secondary sanctions on nations and companies conducting business with Iran. However, analysts note that Iran has withstood nearly five decades of U.S. sanctions, and experts at the International Crisis Group warn the strategy has only “hardened Iran’s position.” Ali Vaez, Iran director at the ICG, said: “The only thing that the Iranian regime views as more dangerous than suffering from U.S. sanctions is surrendering to U.S. terms.”^[1]

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected Trump’s economic threats, calling them a “diversion from America’s own crisis: unprecedented debt & surging interest costs.” He argued that doubling down on “failed policies” would only bring “further defeat and enmity.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei wrote on X: “Iran has demonstrated over decades that it will not be strangled by these exhausted refrains.” Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, visiting Baghdad, accused the U.S. and Israel of waging economic and “cognitive” warfare after concluding they could not prevail in direct military confrontation. He called for stronger economic ties between Baghdad and Tehran, suggesting the two countries use their national currencies in trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. The comments came just hours after Trump’s “Economic D-Day” announcement.^[2]

Justice Department investigators have sought to interview law enforcement officials related to the 2022 FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate as part of a Florida-based inquiry aiming to establish a conspiracy against the Republican president. The requests, made in recent weeks for voluntary interviews rather than through subpoenas, suggest that a conspiracy investigation that had mostly appeared focused on Russian interference in the 2016 election is also examining the Mar-a-Lago search that resulted in the FBI seizing top secret documents. The probe is being overseen by prosecutor Joe diGenova, who was brought back to the Justice Department in April. Trump was indicted in 2023 on charges of unlawfully retaining classified documents, but the case was dismissed after Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon ruled that prosecutor Jack Smith had been illegally appointed.^[3]

Interest rates rebounded Thursday despite efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to put a lid on longer-term borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield rose back to 4.69%, nearly where it stood before Bessent surprised markets by announcing Treasury would double its bond buyback program to $4 billion per operation. The 30-year yield climbed to 5.23%, just below a 19-year high. The national debt topped $40 trillion on Wednesday, a staggering record arriving just months after crossing $39 trillion in April. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the annual deficit will top $2 trillion this year. Bessent said the administration would announce a new deficit-reduction effort, possibly by Monday, and argued the deficit will peak this year due to temporary tariff refund factors. Meanwhile, Big Tech’s massive borrowing to build AI data centers is adding to bond supply, pushing yields higher. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his approach at next Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.^[5]

Asian shares were mixed on Friday following a retreat on Wall Street as the U.S. Treasury Department’s plan to boost government debt buybacks had only limited capacity to calm markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.2% to 66,080.25, while South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.9% to 6,914.09. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.7% to 25,888.36, and the Shanghai Composite was unchanged at 3,903.81. On Thursday, Wall Street’s S&P 500 lost 0.9%, the Dow fell 1.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.71% early Friday, while the 30-year yield reached 5.26%. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.88%. Brent crude fell 0.2% to $93.64 a barrel — compared with roughly $72 before the war. The U.S. dollar fell to 159.01 Japanese yen, while the euro traded at $1.1694. Oil prices remained elevated amid the U.S.-Iran economic standoff.^[6]

A summer of extreme heat has left many Tunisians short of water and electricity — and full of anger at the country’s leadership. Protesters rallied in the capital Tunis on Thursday, many calling on President Kais Saied to leave power. The protest was called by the Nafas movement, which seeks to bring together political parties and independent figures beyond the country’s traditional opposition. Temperatures reached up to 50°C (122°F) in some parts of Tunisia, pushing electricity demand to record levels and forcing state-owned utility STEG to introduce rationing. The power cuts also affected water pumping stations, exacerbating drinking water concerns. Shelves of bottled water emptied quickly as blackouts disrupted factory operations. The production slowdown was deepened by a shortage of raw plastic materials triggered by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. For the first time in seven years, protesters chanted “Dégagé” (Get Out) and “The people want the fall of the regime” — slogans from the 2011 Arab Spring.^[8]

Italy placed all its major cities under the highest heat alert Thursday as a blistering heat wave gripped Europe, setting a national temperature record in Austria, fueling wildfires in France, and disrupting energy and transport systems across the continent. Temperatures exceeded 40°C (104°F) in several countries, prompting health warnings for millions. Scientists warn such events are becoming more frequent and intense as the climate warms. The extreme heat has placed enormous strain on power grids, with several countries reporting emergency measures. In Austria, the national temperature record was broken, while French authorities battled wildfires exacerbated by dry, hot conditions. Rail services in multiple countries were delayed or cancelled as tracks buckled under extreme heat. The heat wave follows a pattern of increasingly severe summer extremes that have hit Europe in recent years.^[9]

Brazil’s government announced it will invest about 2.3 billion reais ($444.2 million) to bolster its artificial intelligence ecosystem, deliberately splitting projects between U.S. and Chinese companies to navigate relations with both powers. About 1.3 billion reais will fund a supercomputing infrastructure project in Rio de Janeiro developed in partnership with China’s Huawei Technologies and iFlytek. Another 1 billion reais will be allocated through a tender for a supercomputer that Brazil expects to rank among the world’s 10 most powerful AI processing machines. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attended the announcement ceremony, and officials emphasized the strategy is “not to depend on a single company, technology, or country.” The move reflects a growing trend of middle powers seeking to balance between the U.S. and China in the global AI race.^[11]

The Dutch Data Protection Authority has decided to fine Uber €825 million under the EU’s GDPR, after concluding that Uber used automated systems to deactivate driver accounts between 2020 and 2022 without adequately informing drivers. The case originated from a complaint filed in France but was heard in the Netherlands because Uber’s European headquarters are in Amsterdam. It is being described as the second-largest GDPR fine in European history, following the earlier fine imposed on Meta. The regulator found that Uber failed to provide sufficient transparency about how automated decision-making systems affected drivers’ livelihoods, violating GDPR provisions on automated processing. Uber has indicated it will appeal the decision. The fine sends a strong signal to platform economy companies about the importance of algorithmic transparency under European law.^[12]

Broadcom is in talks with lenders to raise more than $60 billion in debt for an AI chip financing deal that would benefit Anthropic and other companies, according to Bloomberg News. The financing could include a junior debt tranche and senior-secured tranches that Broadcom would guarantee. The proposed package is part of a much larger AI infrastructure funding effort, with the total potentially reaching up to $100 billion. The deal underscores how capital-intensive the next phase of AI build-out has become, with Broadcom helping design custom chips for major technology firms and AI labs. The massive financing highlights the unprecedented scale of investment flowing into AI infrastructure, as tech giants race to build the computing capacity needed for next-generation AI models.^[13]

The hashtag #EconomicDDay trended globally as Trump’s announcement of “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country” against Iran sparked intense debate on X. Supporters praised the move as a necessary escalation, with hawkish analysts arguing that the combination of military strikes, the naval blockade, and the UAE’s trade suspension had created “uncharted waters” that could force Iran’s hand. Critics, however, seized on Iran’s decades of resilience under sanctions, with the International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez’s quote going viral: “The only thing that the Iranian regime views as more dangerous than suffering from U.S. sanctions is surrendering to U.S. terms.” Treasury Secretary Bessent’s “you are either with us, or against us” ultimatum to allies drew comparisons to post-9/11 rhetoric. Users noted the irony that Trump, who in his first term derided predecessors’ use of sanctions, is now relying on the very tool he once dismissed.^[15]

The hashtag #TunisiaProtests trended as dramatic footage from Tunis showed protesters chanting “Dégagé” (Get Out) and “The people want the fall of the regime” — slogans not heard since the 2011 Arab Spring that toppled Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The Nafas movement’s ability to mobilize first-time protesters, including social media influencers and younger citizens, signals a potential turning point. Users highlighted a devastating chain of causality: the Iran war disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping → petrochemical exports to North Africa were cut → plastic bottle production slowed → bottled water shortages hit during a 50°C heatwave → power cuts disabled water pumps → protests erupted. This “butterfly effect” from geopolitical conflict to basic survival in North Africa went viral, with users arguing it illustrates how interconnected global crises have become. The protests also marked the first time social media influencers have overtly challenged Saied’s rule, bringing a new demographic into political activism.^[16]

The hashtag #BondMarket dominated financial Twitter as the Treasury Department’s unprecedented move to double bond buybacks failed to stem rising yields. The 10-year yield rebounded to 4.69% and the 30-year hit 5.23% near a 19-year high, despite Bessent’s $4 billion per operation intervention. The revelation that national debt topped $40 trillion on Wednesday — just months after crossing $39 trillion — stunned users, with many comparing the pace of debt accumulation to a “runaway train.” The CBO’s estimate of a $2 trillion annual deficit added to the alarm. Financial analysts on X debated whether Bessent’s intervention was counterproductive, with some arguing it signaled desperation. The added pressure from Big Tech’s massive AI data center borrowing flooding the bond market with supply was a trending subtopic. All eyes are now on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech next Friday, with users demanding clarity on inflation strategy. Critics noted the irony of Bessent trying to suppress yields while Warsh explicitly wants markets to set rates.^[17]

The hashtags #AIBuildout and #AIInfrastructure trended in tech circles as two massive AI financing deals landed in the same week. Broadcom’s $60 billion-plus debt raise for an AI chip deal tied to Anthropic — potentially part of a $100 billion total package — stunned even seasoned tech investors. Hours earlier, Google’s $12.2 billion warrant deal with Marvell Technology to deepen custom AI chip cooperation sent Marvell shares up 8%. The sheer scale of capital flowing into AI infrastructure drew comparisons to the 2000 dot-com bubble, with critics arguing that the returns on these investments may not materialize for years. Defenders countered that AI is a generational platform shift comparable to the internet itself. The debate intensified when users noted these deals come amid a broader AI stock selloff that began last week, suggesting a divergence between private AI infrastructure investment (surging) and public AI stock valuations (falling). Meanwhile, Brazil’s decision to split its $444M AI supercomputer investment between Chinese and U.S. firms was seen as a geopolitical hedge in the AI arms race.^[18]